Saturday brings another installment of the FA CUP. It’s the fourth round and Derby are playing to visitors Chesterfield. Derby are Championship title contenders in 3rd place, while Chesterfield currently sit 7th in League One.
To get to the 4th round Chesterfield overcame Scunthorpe, but only after extra time with the game finishing 0-0 after 90 minutes, their previous first leg produced a high scoring 2-2 draw. Derby on the other hand scraped through against Conference side Southport with a 1-0 victory. As with many FA CUP games the favourites rarely get an easy passage to the next round and I envisage the same for Derby with a tight game likely.
Derby are having a great season, but after a winning run of 4 games, came crashing down against Nottingham Forest at home after taking the league. No doubt they didn’t deserve to lose, but they displayed vunerability and played poorly in the second half.
Chesterfield are battling for a play off place in League 1 and recently had a 3-1 defeat to league 1 leader Swindon. Before this their league form is good with 3 wins and a draw in the last 4 games.
Make no mistake Derby are a superior side to Chesterfield, but the FA CUP is not that simple. Chesterfield will play a tight game and will be looking to take any chance they get to take the lead. That said I’m suprised to see odds of 1.61 @ BetVictor available for a derby win. With Chris Martin banging 15 goals this season, and being the 2nd top goalscorer in the Championship they have the ability to get goals. I think we can forgive the Forest game, it was a local derby and form sometimes just goes out the window with those kind of fixtures.
Chesterfield also have a top scorer with Eoin Doyle grabbing 18 goals in the league so far, although he hasn’t been so prolific of late.
With such top scorers the obvious thing to do might be to go for an over 2.5 bet, certainly Chesterfield have been involved in many high scoring games of late. Although we saw a different game against Scunthorpe, as CUP games are a different animal to league fixtures. Baring the 0-0 in mind I think its wise to steer clear of this market.
Given Derby league form, I think they’ll probably win, but by a small margin. Given this Chesterfied +1.5 Asian Handicap looks attractive at odds of 1.5, with the bet winning as long as Chesterfield don’t lose by more than 1 goal.
Derby WIN, 1.61 @ BetVictor
Chesterfield + 1.5 Asian Handicap, 1.50